Portales, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

098
FXUS65 KABQ 060920
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
320 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop today,
  Saturday, and Sunday across the eastern plains of New Mexico. A
  few storms will turn strong to severe with large hail and
  damaging wind gusts being the main threats.

- Showers and storms will expand to central and some western areas
  of the state Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Heavy
  rainfall will be possible in isolated areas with a low to
  moderate risk of localized flash flooding over recent wildfire
  burn scars.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Areas of fog and low clouds will continue across the eastern plains
until mid morning, while a few showers and thunderstorms linger
between Tucumcari and Clayton. Otherwise, drier air will continue to
filter over the forecast area from the southwest today and Saturday
as the broad upper level trough over the western US weakens and a
low amplitude ridge of high pressure gradually builds over the
southern Rockies. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms
will be relegated to locations east of the central mountain chain
this afternoon and evening where a dryline will gradually push
eastward as the afternoon progresses. In addition, a shortwave
trough will pass from CO onto the Great Plains this afternoon and
evening, and there will again be a modest subtropical jetstream over
NM. Like yesterday, this will set our eastern plains up for a high
CAPE and high bulk shear environment with an enhanced risk of severe
thunderstorms in Curry and Roosevelt Counties, and a slight risk of
severe thunderstorms farther north. A couple of supercell
thunderstorms produced multiple tornadoes in Roosevelt County under
this setup yesterday, and based on the Storm Prediction Center`s Day
1 Severe Weather Outlook discussion we opted to mention the risk of
large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes in the Zone Forecast for
Curry and Roosevelt Counties today.

Come Saturday, dry air will prevail across the majority of the
forecast area. There will still be a concern for isolated-to-widely
scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorm east of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains mountains in the afternoon, where a somewhat moist
backdoor front will arrive.

Otherwise, high temperatures will trend warmer both today and
Saturday. Readings will generally reach within a few degrees either
side of average over northern and central areas by Saturday
afternoon, and as much as 10 degrees above average farther south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

An upper ridge will stretch across the Intermountain west and the
Great Basin on Sunday with a weak cut-off low drifting near the
central CA coast. This will reduce winds aloft with a westerly
component of 15 to 25 kt being common in the 700-500 mb layer. At
the surface, drier air will keep spilling into southwestern and
south central NM with dewpoints lowering into the teens and single
digits (F) there. Much of the eastern plains will also be drier
due to a west wind trying to scour out moisture, but a surface
front will be pushing cooler and more moist air into eastern CO,
southwest KS, the panhandles, and northeast NM. This will be a
trigger for storms, many of which may not enter northeast NM until
the early evening. The front will bring shifting winds and
introduce more shear, so strong to severe thunderstorm cells will
accompany. As for temperatures, they will run near to just
slightly above normal with Roswell likely reaching the century
mark again.

Convection firing along the surface boundary in northeast NM and
surrounding areas will help enhance the cold pool Sunday evening,
driving it farther south and west Sunday night through Monday
morning. A gusty east canyon wind would likely develop in
Albuquerque, and surface dewpoints would respond upward in the Rio
Grande valley. Some of this low level moisture will mix eastward
into the early afternoon Monday, but enough should be present to
bring an uptick in showers and thunderstorms, although the western
fringe of storms (central zones) would likely be on the drier side
with less efficient rainfall production. The central mountain
chain and particularly the Sangre de Cristos should undergo a
significant increase in storms Monday with locally heavy rainfall
likely, including the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon wildfire burn
scar. The healthy coverage of storms through Monday evening and
deepening convective cold pools will shove the moisture farther
west through Tuesday morning.

Monday night`s moisture push will expand the convective
initiation area west toward the Continental Divide on Tuesday
with drier storms and more virga expected on the leading edge of
this. The central mountain chain will still fare very well with
numerous storms, and again the locally heavy rainfall threat will
continue along the central mountain chain, as sluggish storm
motions are forecast within the lighter wind fields aloft. The
remnants of the aforementioned cut-off low over CA will also
potentially be making their way across NM at this time, enhancing
storm coverage. The moisture may not advance westward much farther
Tuesday night, leaving Wednesday to be reliant on diurnal heating
over the high terrain with isolated to scattered storms. A
reintroduction of westerly winds aloft and at the surface on
Thursday will then likely push storm coverage farther east again
with less activity in western and central zones.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Areas of low clouds are forecast for the remainder of tonight
until mid morning Friday across northeast and east central areas.
There is a roughly 20 percent chance the low clouds may reach as
far as Roswell by sunrise. Otherwise, dry southwest winds will
become gusty over central and western areas on Friday afternoon.
On the eastern plains, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected Friday afternoon and evening with a risk of large
hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

The warming trend will continue through the weekend with decreasing
coverage of showers and thunderstorms each day as drier air
continues to move in from the southwest. A cutoff low pressure
system off the CA coast is forecast to open into a trough and
gradually track southeastward across NM Monday and Tuesday. It will
draw moist backdoor fronts progressively further into the state
nightly Saturday night through Monday night with increasing coverage
of showers and thunderstorms farther and farther west each afternoon
and evening; potentially reaching as far west as the AZ border by
Tuesday. The western fringe of the moisture will probably be dry
enough for gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms each
afternoon and early evening, while wetting precipitation favors
the northern mountains and the central mountain chain eastward. In
the wake of the upper trough, another trough passing north of NM
will draw subtropical moisture northward over our state with
another round of scattered-to-isolated showers and thunderstorms
favoring the continental divide eastward Wednesday afternoon and
evening. In the wake of the second trough, drier air will filter
over the forecast area from the southwest on Thursday with
decreasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  83  53  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  78  41  81  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  80  50  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  83  42  86  44 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  80  48  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  84  46  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  84  49  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  88  57  87  58 /   5   0   0   0
Datil...........................  84  51  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  89  45  92  47 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  93  51  96  53 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  72  42  76  42 /   5   0   5   0
Los Alamos......................  79  55  81  57 /   5   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  79  52  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  76  47  79  48 /   5   5   5   0
Red River.......................  67  40  68  40 /  10   5  10   0
Angel Fire......................  72  37  74  30 /   5   0   5   0
Taos............................  79  44  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  78  47  79  48 /   5   0   5   0
Espanola........................  86  52  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  80  56  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  84  53  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  88  63  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  90  59  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  93  57  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  90  60  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  93  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  91  58  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  92  54  93  54 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  91  58  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  93  55  93  57 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  86  60  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  90  60  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  97  62  97  62 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  82  55  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  85  56  86  57 /   5   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  84  52  85  52 /   5   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  85  47  86  48 /   5   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  81  51  81  52 /   0   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  85  52  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  85  53  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  91  60  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  85  57  86  53 /  10   0   5   0
Capulin.........................  75  47  76  48 /  40  20  30   5
Raton...........................  80  46  83  48 /  20  10  20   0
Springer........................  82  48  84  49 /  10   5  20   0
Las Vegas.......................  80  49  82  50 /  10   5  10   0
Clayton.........................  79  55  81  58 /  20  30  20   5
Roy.............................  80  52  81  53 /  10  20  10   5
Conchas.........................  87  58  89  59 /  20  20  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  86  56  89  57 /  20  20   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  85  58  88  59 /  30  30   0   5
Clovis..........................  88  61  91  62 /  30  30   0   5
Portales........................  90  60  92  61 /  30  30   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  91  59  92  59 /  30  20   0   5
Roswell......................... 100  65 101  66 /  20  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  93  59  96  60 /  20   5   5   0
Elk.............................  94  58  96  58 /  20   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...44